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Special Report: Astoria's Q4 Investment Outlook – You can’t turn the inflation spigots on and off



Click here to read Astoria’s Q4 Investment Outlook


Astoria has been quite vocal about using cyclical and inflation sensitive assets to provide protection for one’s portfolio. Over the past 10 years, global economies have been mired in a deflationary and low interest rate environment. We think fundamentally this has now changed due to COVID which did 3 crucial things:

  1. Broke supply chains and forced the cost of goods/services to skyrocket

  2. Introduced fiscal stimulus, given monetary policy was no longer an effective means to stimulate growth

  3. Governments were forced to "do whatever it takes" to get their COVID depressed economies out of a recession

These 3 items were a massive shift from the prior cycle. At Astoria, we believe we are in the early stages of the inflation cycle. Many cyclically oriented ETFs are still trading single digit PE ratios. While markets were obsessed with buying momentum, high multiple, unprofitable growth stocks over the past cycle, we think the next cycle will be rooted in buying cyclically oriented and inflation sensitive assets.

Just remember, nothing goes up forever. The way to make money is to buy low and sell high. Ironically investors want to buy high and think they can sell higher. Inflation and cyclical assets are still at pretty low valuation levels which makes them very attractive in our view.


Best,

Astoria Portfolio Advisors


Astoria Portfolio Advisors Disclosure: At the time of this publish date, Astoria held positions in VTIP, STIP, PDBC, BCI, and GLTR and on behalf of its clients. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Any third-party websites provided on www.astoriaadvisors.com are strictly for informational purposes and for convenience. These third-party websites are publicly available and do not belong to Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. We do not administer the content or control it. We cannot be held liable for the accuracy, time sensitive nature, or viability of any information shown on these sites. The material in these links is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC, and does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for any security or any investment strategy. The appearance of such third-party material on our website does not imply our endorsement of the third-party website. We are not responsible for your use of the linked site or its content. Once you leave Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC's website, you will be subject to the terms of use and privacy policies of the third-party website. Refer here for more details.


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