Is the early cycle phase over? No, but headwinds are mounting. Begin to allocate to digital assets as an alternative portfolio hedge. Continue to tilt towards cyclicals & value stocks, fade bonds, and hedge inflation risk.
Key Takeaways for Astoria’s Q2 Investment Committee Outlook
Avoid bonds like the plague
We stick with the pro-cyclical tilt we have had since June 2020 but acknowledge headwinds that are starting to appear (higher taxes, rate hikes)
Rate hikes are on the horizon in 2022 if the economy prospers as everyone expects
Massive ETF flows continue. Wow!
The boom in digital assets is only starting. Their volatility is quite large, so size it accordingly in your portfolio.
The market is starting to price in rate hikes…
And the yield curve continues to steepen…
Source: ETFAction.com
Credit spreads are incredibly tight. No bargains here whatsoever.
Source: ETFAction.com
Over 90% of S&P 500 companies are trading above their 50-DMA. This is the highest reading since June of last year.
Source: ETFAction.com. Data accessed on April 19, 2021.
Per Bespoke Investment Group: “Not only are total Retail Sales above their pre-COVID peak, but they are more than 17% above that peak just 14 months ago.”
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Developed Europe is the only cheap cohort.
Source: JP Morgan
Not even US value stocks are a bargain anymore.
Source: ETFAction.com. Data accessed on April 15, 2021.
The ETF boom continues!
Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of April 2, 2021.
The chart below was compiled by Bank of America Research. It shows the performance of deflationary assets vs. those which are inflationary.
Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Global Financial Dara, Bloomberg; Note: Inflation assets: Commodities, real estate, TIPS, EAFE, US Banks, Value and Cash; Deflation assets = Govt bonds, US IG, S&P 500, US Cons. Disc, Growth and US HY.
For most of the past decade when technology companies increased our productivity and China exported deflation to the Western hemisphere, inflationary pressures were suppressed. Hence, deflationary assets outperformed inflationary assets. That is starting to change. Here is why:
Astoria has been tweeting for some time (follow us @AstoriaAdvisors) that we thought commodity equities would have a relatively good year. We went as far as stating we thought commodity equities would outperform disruptive growth stocks on a risk-adjusted basis in 2021.
Source: ETFAction.com. Data accessed on April 15, 2021.
Source: Corporate Finance Institute
Astoria is fortunate to be a contributor to major media outlets such as CNBC. Astoria’s CIO, John Davi, recently appeared on CNBC to discuss HY Credit and Bitcoin. You can watch the various interviews by clicking below:
Part of my job as a CIO for Astoria Portfolio Advisors is to:
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Data accessed on April 16, 2021.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury recently touched 1.75%, its highest level since the COVID-19 shutdown.
Did you know that the SPYD (SPDR S&P 500 High Dividend ETF) is up 21.5% as of April 19, 2021?
Source: ETFAction.com. Data accessed on April 9, 2021.
As mentioned throughout our report, we do not like bonds. 10 year is heading towards 3% in our view. It will not be a straight line to 3% but we think it ultimately gets there with time. Only extremely specific investors that have strict liabilities they need to match with income should be in bonds.
Source: ETFAction.com. Data accessed on April 16, 2021
Source: ETFAction.com. Data accessed on April 16, 2021. Calculations based on monthly returns between 2011-04-29 and 2021-03-31.
Source: ETFAction.com. Data accessed on April 16, 2021.
In Astoria’s view, the short answer is yes if you are looking to:
Source: Portfolio Visualizer. Data as of December 31, 2020. Backtest uses constituents going back in time. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The following tickers were replaced to further the portfolio backtest: GLDM with GLD.
Source: Astoria Portfolio Advisors. The historical backtest is calculated from October 31, 2007 to December 31, 2020. Net Returns incorporate 50bps annualized management fee. The weight of each stock was rebalanced back to equal weight on a quarterly basis. The benchmark for the Cyclicals Portfolio is 100% SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (SPY).
We went on CNBC to discuss Bitcoin and the potential for an ETF. Our view on digital assets is that when sized appropriately, an allocation to them can help hedge some unique portfolio risks.
Source: Twitter @AstoriaAdvisors
Best,
Astoria Portfolio Advisors
As of the time this writing, Astoria held positions on behalf of client accounts or via our model delivery services in the following ETFs: XME, COPX, RING, SPYD, DVYE, IDV, SPY, QQQ, and IVE. Note that this is not an exhaustive list of holdings across Astoria’s dynamic or strategic ETF portfolios. Any ETF holdings shown are for illustrative purposes only and are subject to change at any time. This material is for informational and illustrative purposes only and is intended solely for the information of those to whom it is distributed by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. No part of this material may be reproduced or retransmitted in any manner without the prior written permission of Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any third-party websites provided on www.astoriaadvisors.com are strictly for informational purposes and for convenience. These third-party websites are publicly available and do not belong to Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. We do not administer the content or control it. We cannot be held liable for the accuracy, time sensitive nature, or viability of any information shown on these sites. The material in these links is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC, and does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for any security or any investment strategy. The appearance of such third-party material on our website does not imply our endorsement of the third-party website. We are not responsible for your use of the linked site or its content. Once you leave Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC's website, you will be subject to the terms of use and privacy policies of the third-party website. Refer here for more details.