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We Are Still Bullish

Last December, we put out our year-ahead outlook; we provided a roadmap explaining why we were the most constructive we had been in years. In short, our bull thesis was centered around

  1. Better earnings

  2. Significant decline in inflation

  3. Accommodative Fed

We acknowledge that the S&P 500’s rally in the first 5 months of this year (+11.81% YTD) has been dramatic.  Are we still bullish?  You bet. Don't fade momentum.

The overall S&P isn’t nearly as attractive as the S&P 493 or even the rest of the world, which is a panacea of opportunities.

To be clear, we are still very constructive on stocks, but more so in the US mid-cap, natural resource, commodity equities, precious metals, and non-US markets, particularly Japan.   Really, the key in our methodology for US large-cap portfolio construction is to equal weight your exposures.  If you still hold onto US large market cap-weighted indices, your products’ valuations are probably relatively expensive.  If you equal weight your large-cap risk, you could lower valuation down 5 turns.

Every week, our research team aggregates all the macroeconomic indicators that Astoria monitors.  We debate, discuss, and analyze each of these statistics.  These data are centralized into a database, and we study the rate of change.

I have asked Nick Cerbone to formally detail a document we can share with our clients.  Please reference our Cycle Indicator Deck.

Also, Frank Tedesco sent out a message, but I am personally very excited about Astoria’s inaugural Macro Summit, which will be held at the NASDAQ Headquarters on Tuesday, October 29th.  We have a stellar lineup of speakers.  You can see our panelists and topics and register here: Astoria's Macro Summit.



Returns are as of Tuesday, May 28th, 2024.

There are no warranties implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information presented herein is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. The returns in this report are based on data from frequently used indices and ETFs. This information contained herein has been prepared by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data, and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third-party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of such information. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser located in New York. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC may only transact business in those states in which it is registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Any third-party websites provided on are strictly for informational purposes and for convenience. These third-party websites are publicly available and do not belong to Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. We do not administer the content or control it. We cannot be held liable for the accuracy, time-sensitive nature, or viability of any information shown on these sites. The material in these links is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC, and does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for any security or any investment strategy. The appearance of such third-party material on our website does not imply our endorsement of the third-party website. We are not responsible for your use of the linked site or its content. Once you leave Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC's website, you will be subject to the terms of use and privacy policies of the third-party website. Refer here for more details.


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