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Bearish sentiments and charts have been circulating the media. We thought we would share this table from Invesco that displays the returns of the S&P 500 following a recession. Historically, the S&P has returned an average of 15.3%, 40.1%, and 78.7% on a 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year respective basis. Source: Invesco Astoria indicated in April of this year that we expected a recession for long-duration assets but a bull market for inflation-sensitive assets. Thus far in 2022, th

The Fed would have been ‘all-in’ if they hiked 100bps yesterday, but they settled on 75bps. The Fed is in a difficult position. A hawkish Fed interested in killing inflation would have hiked faster and more aggressively. Interestingly, while in a quiet period, the Fed apparently leaked their intended hike to the WSJ, pushing the odds of the 75bp hike. We ended last week with very low odds of a 75bp rate hike. By the EOD on Monday, the odds were immensely higher, and many beli